Mortgage Outlook for 2026: Rates, OCR & What to Expect

Mortgages

Mortgage Outlook for 2026

4 MIN READ 21/01/2026

Insights from Nigel Perkins, Head of Mortgages

After a long period of interest rate hikes and economic uncertainty, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of much-needed stability for mortgage holders. With the Official Cash Rate (OCR) now on pause and the major banks largely aligned in their forecasts, borrowers can begin the year with a clearer view of what’s ahead.

To help unpack the numbers and explain what this environment means for borrowers, we sat down with Nigel Perkins, Haven’s Head of Mortgages, for his take on the year ahead.

OCR expected to hold at 2.25%

Below, we break down the forecasts from the 5 major banks, so you can see where things are headed – clearly and simply. The OCR is expected to hold steady at 2.25% throughout 2026. Some are forecasting a lift to 2.50% by early 2027, with longer-term projections hinting at possible rate increases beyond that. But for now, the message is consistent: no sharp moves on the horizon.

“The consensus among the banks is something we haven’t seen in a while – when all five are forecasting stability, it gives borrowers more confidence to plan ahead.”

What this means for your mortgage

With rates holding steady, borrowers may enjoy a more predictable year when it comes to repayments.

Here’s what Nigel highlighted as key implications:

Floating and short-term fixed rates are likely to remain attractive.
Borrowers may avoid further repayment increases, especially those on variable rates.
Greater rate stability means more certainty in budgeting and cash flow planning.

“If you’re coming off a higher fixed rate this year, there’s a good chance your next rate could be lower, or at least not significantly higher. That can take some pressure off households and offer an opportunity to reset”

Housing market outlook

Stable interest rates don’t necessarily mean a booming property market. Most forecasts point to modest house price growth in 2026, rather than a rapid rebound. This reflects a market that’s finding balance again – where prices are more closely aligned with incomes, supply remains relatively healthy, and demand is steady rather than overheated.

“We’re seeing prices aligning more closely with income levels and supply conditions – That kind of balance is healthy for the long term, it’s especially important for first-home buyers trying to get a foot on the ladder.”

An election year adds a note of caution

It’s also worth remembering that 2026 is an election year – and election years often bring a degree of hesitation to the housing market. Political uncertainty can cause both buyers and sellers to pause, particularly in the second half of the year.

“It’s not uncommon for activity to slow ahead of an election. Policy signals around housing, taxation or interest deductibility – can have an impact on confidence. It doesn’t usually derail the market, but it does change the tone.”

Planning ahead: Nigel’s key considerations for 2026

For current borrowers:
Floating and short-term fixed rates are likely to stay favourable. With rate stability, budgeting becomes easier.

For future borrowers:
This could be a good year to lock in a fixed rate – or consider laddering terms to balance certainty and flexibility.

For investors and movers:
The calm rate environment may support buyer confidence, but keep an eye on sentiment shifts heading into the election and beyond.

A more predictable year for mortgage holders

All signs point to 2026 being a year of less movement, more clarity and opportunities to plan ahead with more certainty. While modest house price growth and political factors may keep things measured, that stability could be a real advantage for those looking to refinance, buy or invest.

“It’s a great time to pause, reassess, and build a mortgage strategy that supports your broader financial goals”

Ready to make the most of the year ahead?

Chat to your Haven mortgage adviser today! Email us at mortgages@haven.co.nz or call us at 0800 700 699.

Related resources

Mortgages

OCR drops again taking it to 2.25%

2 MIN READ

The Reserve Bank has just announced a 25 basis point cut to the Official Cash…

Read article

Mortgages

Great news for borrowers: Easier access to lending is on…

2 MIN READ

Thinking about buying your first home, investing in property or refinancing? Now might be a…

Read article

Mortgages

OCR drops to 2.5%: Watch what it means for your…

2 MIN READ

The Reserve Bank has just delivered a 50 basis point cut to the Official Cash…

Read article

Are you ready to get started?

Fill out your details below and someone from our friendly team will be in touch soon.

"*" indicates required fields

Terms & Conditions

Eligibility.
The Haven Travel Promotion is only open to legal residents of New Zealand who are eighteen (18) years of age or older. Disqualified Participants’ are: (a) all Haven employees (b) all people under the age of 18 years.
Promotion Period.
The Promotion begins on Monday 1st April 2025 and will continue until further notice. We reserve the right to amend, suspend, or terminate the promotion at any time without prior notice, at our sole discretion.
How To Enter.
Complete a financial review with a Haven adviser for any service during the promotional period and you will receive one entry into the Promotion.
Drawing the Winners
We will be drawing winners every three months via random selection by Haven Financial Advisers. The first draw is on Monday 7th July 2025 and we will be drawing a winner every 3 months from this date. Only the person who originally entered the Promotion can be awarded the prize.The Winner will be determined by Haven Financial Advisers and will be final and no correspondence will be entered into.The Winner will be notified by email, phone (voice or text), mail or in person. Where attempts to contact the Winner fail (e.g. when the Winner cannot be contacted by phone after three attempts or mail sent is returned) Haven Financial Advisers will select another winner. If, after successful notification, the prize is not collected within two months of being announced, it will be regarded as forfeit. (Note: 3 attempts to contact the Winner will include individual calls to any numbers provided at the time of entry.Where the Winner is required to claim the prize in person, they must provide proper identification (e.g. driver’s licence, passport, birth certificate).
The Prizes
The Prize (a travel voucher valued at $5,000 NZD) is not redeemable for cash or transferable. In the event that the Prize specified in the Promotion becomes unavailable for any reason, Haven Financial Advisers may substitute a prize of like or equal value. The Winner takes the Prize entirely at his/her own risk and indemnifies Haven Financial Advisers in respect of any claim for any accident, injury, property damage or loss of life that may occur in connection with the prize. The Winner is responsible for all insurance, tax or other costs that may be associated with the Prize. Where the Prize has associated terms and conditions the Winner accepts the Prize subject to those terms and conditions and restrictions. The Prize must be taken as stated and no compensation will be payable if the Winner is unable to use the Prize as stated. The Promoter (Haven Financial Advisers) will not be liable for any prize(s) that do not reach the winners for reasons beyond the Promoter’s reasonable control. Where a prize is being supplied by a third party, the Promoter accepts no responsibility in connection with the provision of the prize, including without limitation, the failure of the winner to receive ownership of, or use of, the prize or any performance issues associated with the prize.The Promoter will not be liable for failure to provide (or delay in providing) the Prize resulting from any events, circumstances or causes beyond its reasonable control, including but not limited to acts of god (natural disasters), acts of war or terrorism, national emergencies, issues of public health and safety, pandemic, mechanical breakdown, industry disputes, riots or failure of communication or power supply or voluntary or involuntary compliance with any regulation, law or order of any government.Prizes may be subject to additional terms and conditions imposed by a third party (for example, vouchers may have additional terms and conditions and/or an expiry date or in the case of travel, additional terms and conditions may be imposed by airlines, service providers and venues).The Promoter will not be responsible for any loss or damage suffered by entrants or anyone else as a result of, arising out of, or in any way connected with the Promotion or its prizes.
Social Media & Marketing
Where the Promotion is conducted across social media: a. Entrants’ conduct must comply with the rules of that social media platform. b. The Promotion is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn or Snapchat. These social media platforms are in no way responsible for any aspect of the Promotion. By entering this Promotion, entrants agree to the use of their names, photographs and likeness for promotional/advertising purposes, and agree to make themselves reasonably available for this purpose. Any copyright associated with an entry will be owned by the Promoter. The Promoter collects and holds personal information provided by entrants for the purposes of administering this Promotion and for future Promoter promotional purposes. All personal information provided by entrants will be held by the Promoter and will not be provided to third parties unless otherwise specifically set out. Under the Privacy Act 2020, entrants have the right to access and correct their personal information.

Terms & Conditions

Eligibility.
The Haven My Food Bag Promotion is only open to legal residents of New Zealand who are eighteen (18) years of age or older.To be eligible for the prize you must have a delivery address within the My Food Bag delivery area. My Food Bag delivers to most addresses in the postcodes found here.
Disqualified Participants’ are: (a) all Haven Financial Advisers employees (b) all people under the age of 18 years (c) all people without a qualifying delivery address.
Competition Period.
The Competition begins on Monday 3rd July 2023 to Saturday 30th September 2023.
How To Enter.Complete a financial review with any of Haven’s advisers for any service during the entry period and you will receive one entry into the Competition.
Or,
Refer someone else to complete a financial review with any of Haven’s advisers for any service during the entry period and if they complete the review you will receive one entry each into the Competition.
Drawing the Winners
We will select 3 winners. The final winners will be drawn on Monday 2nd October via random selection by Haven Financial Advisers.Only the person who originally entered the Promotion can be awarded the prize.
The Winners will be determined by Haven Financial Advisers and will be final and no correspondence will be entered into.
The Winners will be notified by email, phone (voice or text), mail or in person. Where attempts to contact a Winner fail (e.g. when the Winner cannot be contacted by phone after three attempts or mail sent is returned) Haven Financial Advisers will select another winner. If, after successful notification, the prize is not collected within two months of being announced, it will be regarded as forfeit. (Note: 3 attempts to contact the Winner will include individual calls to any numbers provided at the time of entry.
Where the Winner is required to claim the prize in person, they must provide proper identification (eg driver’s licence, passport, birth certificate).
The Prizes
The Prizes (8 weekly My Choice (4 nights for 4) My Food Bag deliveries) are not redeemable for cash or transferable. In the event that the Prize specified in the Competition becomes unavailable for any reason, Haven Financial Advisers may substitute a prize of like or equal value.In order to claim the prize the winner will need to sign up to the My Food Bag website to manage their deliveries. In order to sign up a credit or debit card will need to be added to the account for any upgrades or additional grocery items beyond the Prize.
The Winner takes the Prize entirely at his/her own risk and indemnifies Haven Financial Advisers in respect of any claim for any accident, injury, property damage or loss of life that may occur in connection with the prize. The Winner is responsible for all insurance, tax or other costs that may be associated with the Prize. Where the Prize has associated terms and conditions the Winner accepts the Prize subject to those terms and conditions and restrictions.
The Prize must be taken as stated and no compensation will be payable if the Winner is unable to use the Prize as stated.
The Promoter (Haven Financial Advisers Limited) will not be liable for any prize(s) that do not reach the winners for reasons beyond the Promoter’s reasonable control. Where a prize is being supplied by a third party, the Promoter accepts no responsibility in connection with the provision of the prize, including without limitation, the failure of the winner to receive ownership of, or use of, the prize or any performance issues associated with the prize.
The Promoter will not be liable for failure to provide (or delay in providing) the Prize resulting from any events, circumstances or causes beyond its reasonable control, including but not limited to acts of god (natural disasters), acts of war or terrorism, national emergencies, issues of public health and safety, pandemic, mechanical breakdown, industry disputes, riots or failure of communication or power supply or voluntary or involuntary compliance with any regulation, law or order of any government.
Prizes may be subject to additional terms and conditions imposed by a third party.
The Promoter will not be responsible for any loss or damage suffered by entrants or anyone else as a result of, arising out of, or in any way connected with the Promotion or its prizes.
Social Media & Marketing
Where the Promotion is conducted across social media: a. Entrants’ conduct must comply with the rules of that social media platform. b. The Promotion is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or Snapchat. These social media platforms are in no way responsible for any aspect of the Promotion.By entering this Promotion, entrants agree to the use of their names, photographs and likeness for promotional/advertising purposes, and agree to make themselves reasonably available for this purpose. Any copyright associated with an entry will be owned by the Promoter.
The Promoter collects and holds personal information provided by entrants for the purposes of administering this Promotion and for future Promoter promotional purposes. All personal information provided by entrants will be held by the Promoter and will not be provided to third parties unless otherwise specifically set out. Under the Privacy Act 2020, entrants have the right to access and correct their personal information.

Terms & Conditions

1. Eligibility.

The Haven Travel Promotion is only open to legal residents of New Zealand who are eighteen (18) years of age or older.

Disqualified Participants’ are: (a) all Haven Financial Advisers employees (b) all people under the age of 18 years.

2. Competition Period.

The Competition begins on Monday 13th March 2023 to Wednesday 31st May 2023.

3. How To Enter.

Complete a financial review with any of Haven’s advisers for any service during the entry period and you will receive one entry into the Competition.

4. Drawing the Winner

The final winner will be drawn on Monday 5th June via random selection by Haven Financial Advisers.

Only the person who originally entered the Promotion can be awarded the prize.
The Winner will be determined by Haven Financial Advisers and will be final and no correspondence will be entered into.
The Winner will be notified by email, phone (voice or text), mail or in person. Where attempts to contact the Winner fail (eg when the Winner cannot be contacted by phone after three attempts or mail sent is returned) Haven Financial Advisers will select another winner. If, after successful notification, the prize is not collected within two months of being announced, it will be regarded as forfeit. (Note: 3 attempts to contact the Winner will include individual calls to any numbers provided at the time of entry.
Where the Winner is required to claim the prize in person, they must provide proper identification (eg driver’s licence, passport, birth certificate).

5. The Prize

The Prize (a travel voucher valued at $4,000 NZD) is not redeemable for cash or transferable. In the event that the Prize specified in the Competition becomes unavailable for any reason, Haven Financial Advisers may substitute a prize of like or equal value.
The Winner takes the Prize entirely at his/her own risk and indemnifies Haven Financial Advisers in respect of any claim for any accident, injury, property damage or loss of life that may occur in connection with the prize. The Winner is responsible for all insurance, tax or other costs that may be associated with the Prize. Where the Prize has associated terms and conditions the Winner accepts the Prize subject to those terms and conditions and restrictions.
The Prize must be taken as stated and no compensation will be payable if the Winner is unable to use the Prize as stated.
The Promoter (Haven Financial Advisers Limited) will not be liable for any prize(s) that do not reach the winners for reasons beyond the Promoter’s reasonable control. Where a prize is being supplied by a third party, the Promoter accepts no responsibility in connection with the provision of the prize, including without limitation, the failure of the winner to receive ownership of, or use of, the prize or any performance issues associated with the prize.
The Promoter will not be liable for failure to provide (or delay in providing) the Prize resulting from any events, circumstances or causes beyond its reasonable control, including but not limited to acts of god (natural disasters), acts of war or terrorism, national emergencies, issues of public health and safety, pandemic, mechanical breakdown, industry disputes, riots or failure of communication or power supply or voluntary or involuntary compliance with any regulation, law or order of any government.
Prizes may be subject to additional terms and conditions imposed by a third party (for example, vouchers may have additional terms and conditions and/or an expiry date or in the case of travel, additional terms and conditions may be imposed by airlines, service providers and venues).
The Promoter will not be responsible for any loss or damage suffered by entrants or anyone else as a result of, arising out of, or in any way connected with the Promotion or its prizes.

6. Social Media & Marketing

Where the Promotion is conducted across social media: a. Entrants’ conduct must comply with the rules of that social media platform. b. The Promotion is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or Snapchat. These social media platforms are in no way responsible for any aspect of the Promotion.
By entering this Promotion, entrants agree to the use of their names, photographs and likeness for promotional/advertising purposes, and agree to make themselves reasonably available for this purpose. Any copyright associated with an entry will be owned by the Promoter.
The Promoter collects and holds personal information provided by entrants for the purposes of administering this Promotion and for future Promoter promotional purposes. All personal information provided by entrants will be held by the Promoter and will not be provided to third parties unless otherwise specifically set out. Under the Privacy Act 2020, entrants have the right to access and correct their personal information.

Mortgage Outlook for 2026

OCR expected to hold at 2.25%

“The consensus among the banks is something we haven’t seen in a while – when all five are forecasting stability, it gives borrowers more confidence to plan ahead.”

What this means for your mortgage

“If you’re coming off a higher fixed rate this year, there’s a good chance your next rate could be lower, or at least not significantly higher. That can take some pressure off households and offer an opportunity to reset”

Housing market outlook

“We’re seeing prices aligning more closely with income levels and supply conditions – That kind of balance is healthy for the long term, it’s especially important for first-home buyers trying to get a foot on the ladder.”

An election year adds a note of caution

“It’s not uncommon for activity to slow ahead of an election. Policy signals around housing, taxation or interest deductibility – can have an impact on confidence. It doesn’t usually derail the market, but it does change the tone.”

Planning ahead: Nigel’s key considerations for 2026

A more predictable year for mortgage holders

“It’s a great time to pause, reassess, and build a mortgage strategy that supports your broader financial goals”

Ready to make the most of the year ahead?

Share this article

Talk to us today

0800 700 699

Related resources

OCR drops again taking it to 2.25%

Great news for borrowers: Easier access to lending is on…

OCR drops to 2.5%: Watch what it means for your…

Are you ready to get started?