Mortgages

Mortgage Outlook for 2026

3 MIN READ 21/01/2026
Key insights from Nigel Perkins, Head of Mortgages
Nigel’s key takeaways:
  1. OCR expected to hold at 2.25% in 2026, but mortgage rates may rise late 2026, subject to NZ inflation stats
  2. Consider longer-term fixed rates for certainty
  3. Use cashflow improvements to pay down debt
  4. Explore cashback and refinance offers for loans > $400k

The economy is picking up, and interest rates are likely to follow. We sat down with Nigel Perkins, Haven’s Head of Mortgages, to break down what this means for borrowers.

OCR expected to hold at 2.25%

Below, we break down the forecasts from our major banks, to show where interest rates may be headed.

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is expected to remain steady at 2.25% for most of 2026. Recent inflation data (CPI, 23 Jan 2026) has likely reinforced the Reserve Bank’s view that interest rates have bottomed out. Most banks are now forecasting the first OCR increase by early 2027. However, given the stronger-than-expected inflation results, these rate hikes may well be brought forward – this year will be all about pinpointing when that shift will occur.

Note: Bank OCR forecasts are highly responsive to shifts in inflation data and can change quickly as new economic information emerges.

Mortgage implications
  • Many borrowers coming off higher fixed rates may find their next rate is lower, creating improved household cashflow
  • Consider splitting loans to manage interest rate volatility
  • Engage a Haven mortgage adviser to optimise your home loan structure
Nigel’s advice
“If you’re coming off a higher fixed rate this year, there’s a good chance your next rate could be lower. That can take some pressure off households and offer an opportunity to reset.”
  • Take a considered approach when refixing in 2026
  • Make use of cashflow improvements to pay down debt faster
  • Explore cashback and refinance offers, especially for loans over $400,000
Housing market outlook

Expect a “game of two halves” in 2026, with improved economic performance in the first half and some softening in the second half due to the election and higher interest rates. Overall, modest house price growth of 3-5% is forecast.

Source: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/lending-and-monetary/new-residential-mortgage-lending-by-purpose

Planning ahead
  • Review and challenge your loan structure with a Haven mortgage adviser
  • Take advantage of Haven’s first home buyer’s hub and support series
  • Stay close to your accountant and mortgage adviser to optimise loan structure and tax efficiency
Ready to make the most of the year ahead?

Chat to your Haven mortgage adviser today! Email us at mortgages@haven.co.nz or call us at 0800 700 699.

 


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